India’s GDP is set to grow at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, rating agency ICRA said on Monday. This undershoots the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February.

Icra, in its note, projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY 2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter.

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Notably, in February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. Economic growth in June, September, and December quarters was at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at Icra, said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.

Services sector exports continued to show double-digit growth, while merchandise exports contracted in YoY terms in Q4 FY2025 after expanding in the December quarter.

Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, Icra projects a sharp step-down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3 per cent in FY 2024-25, from 9.2 per cent in FY 2023-24.